Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) lowered its 2025 outlook, citing weaker soybean crush margins, softer ethanol profits, and uncertain trade conditions. CEO Juan Luciano said the two main factors shaping commodity prices are clearer terms on the new U.S.\u2013China trade deal and final EPA decisions on biofuel policies. The White House announced China will buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans in late 2025 and 25 mmt annually through 2028 while lifting retaliatory tariffs on key U.S. farm goods\u2014but market participants await details on timing, pricing, and shipment terms, which are holding back both farmers and buyers.<\/p>\n
ADM executives also pointed to \u201cnon-clarity\u201d in renewable-fuel regulations amid a government shutdown. Once EPA finalizes the Renewable Volume Obligations and small-refinery exemptions, analysts expect Renewable Identification Number (RIN) prices and crush margins to recover. Upcoming changes\u2014such as ending tax credits for imported renewable diesel and favoring domestic feedstocks for the 45Z credits\u2014could strengthen U.S. soybean-oil demand by 2026\u201327. ADM posted a Q3 operating profit of $845 million (-19% y\/y) and $2.45 billion year-to-date (-23% y\/y).<\/p>\n
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