On September 24, 2025, the Brazilian Coffee Industry Association (Abic) announced that supermarket coffee prices could rise between 10% and 15% due to higher raw material costs. Retailers are expected to reflect the increase on shelves by early October. Despite the adjustment, Abic President Pavel Cardoso noted that the hike “should not exceed the annual average.” Sales have already dropped 5.41% between January and August compared to last year, while instant coffee has seen cumulative increases of over 50%.
The industry also faces uncertainty over U.S. tariffs on Brazilian coffee, with producers awaiting clarity following a September 6 executive order. Brazil remains the largest supplier of coffee to the U.S., and Abic expects tariff exemptions given limited U.S. domestic production. Meanwhile, recent Cepea/Esalq data shows falling Arabica and Robusta prices in São Paulo due to profit-taking, rainfall expectations, and speculation around tariff removal. Despite volatility, Abic projects that 2025 could close with consumption levels similar to last year.
Link:
https://en.mercopress.com/2025/09/25/brazilian-coffee-producers-foresee-price-increase-of-up-to-15