Chicago soybean futures rose more than 2% on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump stated he hoped China would quadruple its soybean imports from the United States. Posting on Truth Social, Trump linked the proposed increase to helping reduce China’s trade deficit with the U.S., noting that the country faces a soybean shortage. China, the world’s largest soybean importer, has increasingly favored South American suppliers amid ongoing trade and diplomatic tensions, though negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials are underway.
Following Trump’s comments, the most active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) rose to $10.08 a bushel, while wheat gained 0.9% to $5.19 and corn edged up 0.3% to $4.06-3/4 a bushel. Despite the gains, all three commodities remain under pressure from ample global supply, with recent prices hitting multi-month or multi-year lows. Analysts expect the USDA to raise its U.S. corn and soybean production estimates in its upcoming August 12 report, as Northern Hemisphere wheat harvests continue to add to market supply.
U.S. export sales for soybeans, corn, and wheat have recently exceeded expectations, aided by lower prices that have stimulated demand, and the USDA has reported multiple flash corn sales in recent days. However, speculative positioning remains bearish, with non-commercial traders expanding net short positions in soybeans and wheat as of early August. Large short positions leave markets susceptible to rapid upward swings if short covering occurs.