U.S. soybean prices surged this week as traders reacted to reports that China purchased seven cargoes—about 250,000 metric tons—of soybeans, part of a new trade framework pledging 12 million metric tons in late 2025 and 25 mmt annually through 2028. The January soybean contract climbed to a 13-month high, gaining $0.55 for the week. Analyst Shawn Hackett of Hackett Financial Advisors said prices could rise toward $12 per bushel if China follows through, but he remains cautious about long-term commitments, noting the agreement lacks enforceable details and may include a “commercial considerations” clause like past deals.
Hackett said Chinese buying could extend beyond soybeans to corn, wheat, and cotton following tariff reductions in the new trade framework. He expects corn could reach $4.80 on the charts, supported by lower yields and tighter balance sheets in the November WASDE report. Wheat futures also rallied $0.22–$0.23 as funds covered shorts and traders priced in potential Chinese purchases. Meanwhile, cattle markets ended the week lower, with Hackett calling the decline “appropriate” amid expectations Brazil’s beef tariffs could be lifted. Overall, grain markets are enjoying a sharp rebound—but sustained momentum depends on whether China’s buying translates from pledges to actual shipments in the months ahead.