Coffee futures rose by as much as 2% in New York after a slowdown in Brazil’s coffee exports and growing uncertainty over potential U.S. tariffs heightened supply concerns. July shipments of green coffee beans from Brazil fell 20% compared to a year earlier, as many farmers, despite completing the harvest, are holding back sales in anticipation of higher prices. The reluctance of Brazilian producers to sell, combined with increased buying by roasters—including futures purchases extending to March 2027—has helped stabilize the market and prevent further declines. Roasters are locking in prices now, regardless of origin, as a hedge against possible tariff-related premiums in the future.
The tighter supply picture is further reinforced by a continued drop in inventories held in exchange-monitored warehouses, which fell for a ninth consecutive day to the lowest level in over a year. Analysts note that this dynamic, with producers selling only on price spikes and roasters buying on dips, has kept the market in a holding pattern.