After months of weakness, U.S. grain and soybean markets have sharply rebounded, cutting year-to-date losses to just 1%. The surge—led by soybeans (+13.8%) and soy oil (+24%)—comes amid renewed optimism over China’s pledge to buy 12 mmt of U.S. soybeans by January and at least 25 mmt annually through 2028. Yet analysts, including Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen, warn that the rally appears more technical than fundamental, driven by speculative short covering, thin liquidity, and missing USDA and CFTC data due to the government shutdown.
Despite price gains, forward curves for major grains remain in deep contango, signaling abundant global supply and comfortable inventories. Without firm export data confirming Chinese purchases or tightening physical markets, the bounce may fade as carry costs and renewed short selling return. With strong harvests across the U.S., Europe, the Black Sea, and Australia, analysts expect the current rally to stall unless export flows rise sharply—making sustained recovery dependent on whether China follows through on its commitments.